Weekly Stock Market Technical View

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September 12, 2016
Nifty close 8866 points: The Nifty opened with an upside gap and continued its rise hitting a high of 8968 points on 7th Sept 2016, where we saw some profit taking coming in after a gap up open on the daily charts. This resulted in further Bull unwinding on the last trading day of the week, which resulted in the Nifty wiping out almost all the gains of the week. It finally closed a meager 57 points higher (thanks to the R group stocks) than last week but it has made a “shooting star” pattern, which is an ominous sign especially if the Nifty closes decisively below 8696 points this week.
The weekly trendline support (connecting the lows of 6825-7927 points) is pegged around 8680 points for this week. This should be an absolute Stop Loss from at least a short term trading perspective. A breach in weekly close of this level could see the Nifty slide to the next crucial support between 8517-8543 points range.
Resistance for this week is pegged at 8895 points and as long as the Nifty remains below this the downside targets are 8820 and 8774 points. If the above mentioned supports are broken then the Nifty will slide to 8666-8700 points range. The short term trend has come a bit wobbly now and the coming 2 weeks are crucial for the Bulls as they have to defend the above mentioned supports come what may. Failing which the short term trend or in a pessimistic scenario the intermediate term trend will turn down. The 16-17thSept and 23rd Sept are crucial dates to watch out for as the Volatility is expected to be high. Bullishness only if the Nifty sustains above 8900 points level.
It’s prudent to wait for the market to settle in the next 2 weeks before venturing into new stocks as the risk would be high.
Bajaj Corp Ltd. Cmp Rs.406.45
It remained range bound last week between 412 and 403.05. The upside targets and SL remain at the same levels as mentioned last week.
Update: Reliance Comm. Cmp Rs.50.80
This stock made a high of 52.30 and a low of 48.35 and finally settled at 50.80 (+3.15%). It should be bought from a medium term perspective with the Stop Loss levels in close as mentioned.
Update: ONGC Ltd. Cmp Rs.254.95
It declined to a low of 238 and the rallied to 257.50 before settling at 254.95, up 6.79 per cent for the week. However it did not correct to the ideal range of 226-231 (low 235.10), but has come very close to the projected target area of 260-267.
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