Weekly Stock Market Fundamental View Jul 17, 2017

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July 17, 2017

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Key benchmark indices hit record high with the BSE Sensex conquering the psychologically significant 32,000-level as a drop in June retail inflation data sparked hopes of a rate cut by the RBI. Global stock markets also provided some tailwind after US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, in a House testimony, signalled that the approach to higher rates will be steady, prompting investors to buy more in risky emerging markets. The government data released after market hours on 12 July 2017, showed that retail inflation has eased to a record in June and factory output growth slowed sharply in May. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 1.54% in June from 2.18% in May. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 1.7% in May compared with 3.1% in April. Last week, the Sensex surged 660.12 points or 2.10% to settle at 32,020.75. The Nifty 50 index advanced 220.55 points or 2.28% to settle at 9,886.35.The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index jumped 1.64%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index surged 0.49.

First quarter results, macroeconomic data, progress of monsoon rains, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses. Investors brace up as the Q1 June 2017 earnings of India Inc pick up pace next week. Taking positive cues from the US market, which is at a record high, and the positive trend in Asian markets, domestic indices can begin next week week on an optimistic note. Lower inflation coupled with decline in IIP growth has led to renewed call for a rate cut by the RBI. This expectation could help stocks further.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its weekly weather report on 13 July 2017, said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's southwest monsoon season has so far upto 12 July 2017 is 1% below Long Period Average (LPA). Overseas, China will unveil GDP data for second quarter on 16 July 2017. Eurozone interest rate decision will be held on 20 July.


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