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Key benchmark indices hit record high with the BSE Sensex conquering the psychologically significant 32,000-level as a drop in June retail inflation data sparked hopes of a rate cut by the RBI. Global stock markets also provided some tailwind after US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, in a House testimony, signalled that the approach to higher rates will be steady, prompting investors to buy more in risky emerging markets.

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After a glittering rally in the previous week, markets seems to have taken a breather as Nifty registered a first weekly fall in the month of March after making fresh life time high of 9218 levels post the state election outcome. Nifty ended the week with marginal decline of half a per cent.

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The market edged higher last week, backed by positive global cues. The Sensex crossed the psychologically important 27,000 level. Last week , the Sensex rose 478.83 points or 1.79% to settle at 27,238.06. The Nifty rose 156.55 points or 1.90% to settle at 8,400.35. The BSE Mid-Cap index gained 317.31 points or 2.58% to settle at 12,639.03. The BSE Small-Cap index 249.52 points or 2.01% to settle at 12,689.85. India's industrial production surged at 13-months high pace of 5.7% in November 2016 over November 2015, snapping 1.8% fall recorded in October 2016. The manufacturing sector's production jumped 5.5%, while mining output rebounded 3.9% after three months of decline, contributing to the increase in industrial production. The data was released by the government on Thursday, 12 January 2017. The all-India monthly inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) dipped to 25-months low of 3.41% in December 2016, compared with 3.63% in November 2016.

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The Indian equity market started the week on a cautious note and closed lower on weak global cues and a weak rupee dampened the sentiments. The Sensex hit a 14-week low, while the Nifty hit its lowest level in more than 10 weeks. Heavy selling pressure was witnessed in Auto, Telecom, Industrial, Realty and Pharma stocks. Only Banking index managed to close in green. Nonetheless, the Indian equity market changed its tide and registered robust gains very next day on back of short covering and bargain hunting and this lifted the sentiments of market and closes with gains of 1.28% by the close of the week. The first rounds of earnings were out. Performance wise Financials have done well, IT has been mixed and Cement has been muted. Yes Bank’s second quarter performance surpassed analysts’ expectation with the profit rising 31.3% YoY. ACC misses estimates as profits dampen 29% and Ultratech Cement profitability improved in the September quarter but slower than expected cement growth surprised investors.

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Key benchmark indices dropped last week weighed by weak global cues. The S&P BSE Sensex, dropped below the psychologically important 28,000 level during the week. The Sensex fell 387.54 points or 1.38% to settle at 27,673.60. The Nifty 50 index fell 114.20 points or 1.31% to settle at 8,583.40. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 123 points or 0.91% to settle at 13,419.62. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 45.64 points or 0.35% to settle at 13,176.76. Two major events triggered the sell-off in the markets. Chinese exports tumbled 10% (year-on-year) in September against market expectations of a 3.3 per cent fall. The fall in exports — the most since February — has raised concerns on the slowing global demand and thus, on the overall growth outlook.The minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting released on Wednesday offered little respite for markets. It pointed to a likely rate hike by the end of the year with several members indicating that ‘it would be appropriate to increase the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon if economic developments unfolded about as the Committee expected’.

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Global markets witnessed sharp volatility during the week gone by. Stock markets in Brazil (down 2.8%) and US (down 2.2%), were the leading losers. While, Hongkong and Singapore stock indices were among the leading gainers, registering weekly gains of 3.6% and 2.5% respectively. The outcome of a monthly survey showing that August saw a solid rebound in the rate of expansion in Indian service sector business activity also aided sentiment. The Sensex settled below the psychologically important 29,000 mark after early surge helped regain that mark during the week. Indices cut gains on profit taking as the week progressed. The S&P BSE Sensex, rose 265.14 points or 0.92% to settle at 28,797.25. The Nifty gained 57.05 points or 0.64% to settle at 8,866.70. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.86%, and the BSE Small-Cap index gained 1.71%

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Nifty close 8809 points: The Nifty opened flat but did not break the crucial support area of 8517-8543 points which it was holding above for the last 5 weeks. When it crossed last week’s high of 8684 points the Bears started scurrying by covering their shorts. This coupled with speculative buying as the Nifty broke above the recent top of 8728 points saw the Nifty hitting a new 52 week high of 8824 points. This has once again shifted the onus on the Bears to push down prices as the Bulls are sitting pretty.

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Nifty close 8638 points: The Nifty opened the week slightly lower but gained gradually to close with a gain of 97 points (1.14%) over the week. With this it is now testing the top of 24/07/2015 of 8654 points as the overall bias continues to be up despite the overbought nature of the market in the short term. The nearest Stop Loss should now be shifted up to 8545 points by traders and the 8476-8517 points range by the positional ones.

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