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In the week passed by, markets started on subdued note as participants remained cautious ahead of the US president Donald Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress, there were no negative in the President Donald Trump speech. However, sentiment boosted as the quarterly GDP numbers surprised the market. The GDP for the quarter October- December came in at 7% Vs 7.4% (QoQ). Though there is a slight slowdown, but the market participant were expecting GDP to dip to 6.1% due to demonetisation. Meanwhile, Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up to 50.70 in February from 50.40 in January, while Nikkei India Services PMI stood at 50.30 in February, up from 48.70 registered in January. This led to Nifty testing levels of 8892.50 mid-week. However, the level of 9000 was so near yet so far. Finally, the market took a pause after a five weeklong rally and ended the week with losses of about half a percent. In the backyard few important events are lined up in the coming week which is likely to keep market on the tenterhook. The State Election verdict which is due on 11th March. On the economy front, Index of industrial production data for the month of January will be announced on Mar 10. Also, ONGC is all set to take over complete control of HPCL from the government and forward integrate its operations.

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Indian market began the week with Trump’s bombardment this time on Pharmaceuticals stocks which led to gap down opening, but by the end of the day market recovered from the early morning sell-off. However, market remained nervous ahead of the budget and ended the second session of the week with losses. As Finance Mr. Arun Jaitely started the Budget speech market traded in a narrow range with negative bias, however, by the end market participants realised there has been no changes in the Long Term Capital Gains (LTCG), which kept market participants on tenterhook. ‘No bad news is good news’ is what sums up for stock market from Union Budget 2017. This triggered rally and bulls ended the week with gains of 1.28% and Nifty reclaiming 8,700 mark. Going forward, the first RBI policy meet post the Union Budget on 8th February,2017, will be a major event for the market to watch out for.

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Market began the week on a subdued tone but soon resumed its upward journey after the private sector bank Indusind bank reported better than expected numbers. Sentiments further boosted as the country’s Industrial Output shrugged of the impact of demonetisation to surge to a one-year high of 5.7 per cent in November as compared to a contraction of 1.8 per cent in the previous month. In separate data issued by the statistics department, retail inflation decelerated to 3.41 per cent in December against 3.63 per cent a month ago with vegetable prices showing a slump. During the last couple of days of the week IT bellwether TCS and Infosys reported their earnings, TCS reported a decent set of numbers and Infosys cut the upper end of its full-year revenue growth forecast to 8.8% in constant currency terms as Indian software exporters brace for a more protectionist visa regime in the U.S., the industry’s largest market.

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Indian market began the first week of New Year on a muted note and shifted into consolidation for the first couple of trading sessions but later gained traction by the close of the week on expectation of normalcy returning in the economy post the demonetization move. One interesting move which brought cheer to the markets was that Banks reduced interest rates by as much as 0.9% across categories. SBI and HDFC Bank have taken the lead and others are following as well. The auto number which came in was not good largely due to impact of demonetization. Although the monthly sales in December 2016 saw a dip, the year-on-year impact varies from automaker to automaker. Tata Motors came in with a big surprise as it posted 30% rise in US sales for the month of December and 24% rise in annual US Sales.

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The Indian markets began the week on a negative note on the key GST Bill passage turnaround and parliament winter session conflict. But, it was when US FOMC interest rate hike and hawkish stance made emerging markets jittery, however, the aftereffect of this event lasted till the opening tick and thereafter market recovered with full force. This was clear indication that buyers are active at lower levels. US FED guided of 3 rate hikes in 2017 and much more in 2018 and 2019, portraying that US economy is poised for growth over the next few years. The retail inflation which was released during the week, post demonetisation last month, came at 3.63% VS 4.2% MoM. The wholesale inflation also moderate for the third straight month as it fell to 3.15% in November. In the coming week there are few important global events lined up like the Bank of Japan interest rate decision scheduled on Tuesday after the recent FOMC outcome shall be keenly watched by the global participants. In addition the US and UK GDP numbers clubbed with other data scheduled in coming week, may provide some cues to the listless market.

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The Indian equity market started the week on a cautious note and closed lower on weak global cues and a weak rupee dampened the sentiments. The Sensex hit a 14-week low, while the Nifty hit its lowest level in more than 10 weeks. Heavy selling pressure was witnessed in Auto, Telecom, Industrial, Realty and Pharma stocks. Only Banking index managed to close in green. Nonetheless, the Indian equity market changed its tide and registered robust gains very next day on back of short covering and bargain hunting and this lifted the sentiments of market and closes with gains of 1.28% by the close of the week. The first rounds of earnings were out. Performance wise Financials have done well, IT has been mixed and Cement has been muted. Yes Bank’s second quarter performance surpassed analysts’ expectation with the profit rising 31.3% YoY. ACC misses estimates as profits dampen 29% and Ultratech Cement profitability improved in the September quarter but slower than expected cement growth surprised investors.

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Nifty close 8831 points: The Nifty opened flat but rallied to a high of 8893 points on Thursday (as the FED left rates unchanged) before selling off on the last day of the week. This resulted in the Nifty gaining a meagre 52 points (0.59%) last week primarily because of some heavyweights like HDFC Bank, HDFC Ltd, Reliance etc. The Reliance group stocks were in the limelight. The weekly trendline support (connecting the lows of 6825-7927 points) has moved up to roughly 8800 points, for this week. This should be an absolute Stop Loss on longs from at least a short term trading perspective. A breach in weekly close of this level could see the Nifty slide to the next crucial support of 8688 points which also if broken could see it test the 8517-8543 points range.

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Nifty close 8779 points: The Nifty opened with a downside gap and hit our crucial support level of 8696 points on Tuesday before staring a contra trend rise to the sharp decline 8968-8688 points. We saw a sharp gap up open on Friday where in the Nifty hit the 50-61.8% retracement area of the above mentioned decline but saw a sharp intra-day sell off as we had anticipated in the last week’s report. Finally the Nifty ended the week down (-0.98%). Now 23rd Sept is another crucial day where we expect another sell off which could test the recent low. If this low is taken out decisively in this anticipated fall then the short term uptrend of the Nifty might be under serious threat.

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